Storm Heading Our Way

If this storm track is right it should hit most of Ontario.

Taken literally, you can say that some of the numerical models loudly argue for a genuine blizzard across the Upper Midwest and much of the Great Lakes this weekend. And while the European version at 12z implied an ice storm threat to the major metropolitan areas of Kansas City MO, Chicago IL, and Grand Rapids MI, there is potential for the storm, and rain vs. snow placement, to take a bit more of a rightward curve that would enable the heavy snowfall, wind and cold combination. With the upper low phasing into a deep trough and vortex, the abundance of 500MB height falls and eastward displacement of the vorticity maxima makes it possible that the surface low will redevelop off of the coast of LI NY. This secondary could help to prevent a shift from snow to rain in much of New England and the Maritime Provinces. Otherwise, the entire warm sector of the giant disturbance will feature heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The risk of severe weather in Dixie may be limited by a very moist atmospheric profile, but still, strong winds are virtually assured in the tight pressure gradient about the low.

Snowfall totals within the colder quadrants of the gyre may be in the 10 to 15 inch range (caveat: lake-related moisture could enhance amounts in parts of IL, WI, MI, and ON), and a thin stripe of territory just above the storm trajectory axis could be hit with a rather impressive icing event. Following the storm will be about 48 hours of extreme cold that at one point could cover most of the area between the Rocky Mountains and the Eastern Seaboard.

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